Soccer Analysis Strategy

15 Factors and Information of analysis soccer Tips

1. Records of history achievement for Team A and B
2. Records of at least 6 to 10 matches form for Team A and B
3. Record down the last two achievement for Team A and B
4. Table Position for Team A and B, identify the strength of Team A and B
5. AH Odd chat and analysis the odd high for Team A or odd low for Team B
6. Information of odd movement for Team A and Team B for past 6 games
7. Predict the reasonable odd base on above 6 factors for yourself then compare with bookmakers
8. Analysis and Observation of Early and Final AH Odd movements, which can help to increase the prediction rate of bookmaker’s favors
9. Analysis and Observation of Early and Final AH Odd water fee movements, which can help to increase the prediction rate of bookmaker’s favors
10. Analysis and comparison of 100 euro bookmaker’s odd movement.
11. Comparison the AH and Euro odds, then identify whether both are same movement, or different trend
12. Analysis and comparison at least 5 to 7 major AH bookmaker’s water fee level, and odd movement
13. Analysis of trading bookmaker for Team A and B, so identify which team will be more heavy boat.
14. Comparison the history odd for team A and B, it may help to final selection sometime
15. News for Team A and B



The Simple Sequence method

A number of matches are used to look back at from the forecast date. So lets say our team has the following results (most recent on the right hand side):

W D L L W

This would give them the following points:

3 + 1 + 0 + 0 + 3 = 7

Now to take into account current form each is given a weighting factor, so the oldest match is multiplied by 1 up to the most recent match being multiplied by 5. Of course this will vary depending upon the number of matches you use, but for this example it gives us the following:

3*1 + 1*2 + 0*3 + 0*4 + 3*5 = 20 points

Now lets say the away team playing against the team above have the following record:

W W D D D

They will have:

3*1 + 3*2 + 1*3 + 1*4 + 1*5 = 21 points.

The points difference HOME v AWAY = 20 - 21 = -1.

Now, depending how you classify this it could represent an away win, i.e. all matches below a points difference of 0 = away win, or it could be classed as a draw.


The Win, Draw, Loss method

This is very simple and takes into account the proportion of past wins, draws, and losses over a specified period of time

1. For a specified period of time the number of wins, losses, and draws are counted for each side. This could be for a whole season or you may wish to have a rolling time period, say the last six months for example.

2. The percentage probabilities for home wins, draws, and away wins are then made. For example, the home win percentage is calculated as follows:

(( HW + AL) * 100) / total number of matches

Where,

HW = number of home wins by home team
AL = number of away losses by away team
Once you have a percentage probability for each outcome a decision can be made on the most likely outcome.

Let's look at a simple example of how you could apply this

First of all you would collect the data for a specified period of time and for each of the three possible outcomes, i.e.

HW = number of home wins for home team
HD = number of draws for home team
HL = number of home losses for home team
AW = number of away wins for away team
AD = number of draws for away team
AL = number of away losses for away team

TOTALGAMES = HW + HD + HL + AW + AD + AL

HOMEWIN = ((HW + AL)*100)/TOTALGAMES
DRAW = ((HD+AD)*100)/TOTALGAMES
AWAYWIN = ((HL + AW)*100)/TOTALGAMES

This gives you a percentage probability for each of the three possible outcomes.

Now let's extend this to provide 1, X, 2, 1X, and X2 prediction's

To do this we can employ a simple voting system, here is how it works:

First we set three thresholds;

DRAWTHRESHOLD = 35%
AWAYTHRESHOLD = 45%
HOMETHRESHOLD = 55%


IF HOMEP > AWAYP AND HOMEP > DRAWP THEN PREDICTION = 1
ELSEIF AWAYP > HOMEP AND AWAYP > DRAWP THEN PREDICTION = 2
ELSEIF DRAWP > HOMEP AND DRAWP > AWAYP THEN PREDICTION = x

ELSEIF HOMEP = DRAWP AND HOMEP > AWAYP THEN PREDICTION = 1x
ELSEIF AWAYP = DRAWP AND AWAYP > HOMEP THEN PREDICTION = x2